INVESTIGATIONS / MEASUREMENT & FRAMING
Constructed exampleWho disappeared before the story began?
Success stories tell us who remained. What would the full picture change?
YOUR TASK / CONSTRUCTED EXAMPLE
Make a recommendation from the project archive
You’re advising a fictional team that has collected project success stories. Make a provisional recommendation from the visible projects, then inspect the records outside that view.
An evidence trail.
Your decision.
Begin with a provisional judgment
Loading the supplied example…
Keep a private first thought (optional)
Private writing stays out of links and default downloads. A reopened link does not restore it.
This records a provisional judgment and the starting configuration. It does not change a mathematical setting or save automatically.
01 / THE STORIES WE SEE
A pattern, or a missing denominator?
The selected projects reached their six-month goal. What can their strategies tell us?
20 of 30
successful projects used “Launch early”Before you reveal
Optional, private and ungraded. Kept only when you save.
02 / WIDEN THE FRAME
The stories that survived.
Showing 30 projects that reached the goal
These are shares of the selected stories. The full population is still outside this view.
Inspect a strategy or project
Every visible project can be inspected without targeting a small mark.
The visible stories were only part of the population.
Count the attempts, not only the successes.
Save this experiment
MODEL & LIMITS
What the complete picture still cannot tell us
The missing projects are known because this example supplies them. These rates describe two groups; they do not establish that either strategy caused success.
- PopulationWho tried?
- SelectionWho is visible?
- InferenceWhat follows?
Inspect the complete counts and workings
| Strategy | Reached goal | Did not | Total | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch early | 20 | 60 | 80 | 25% |
| Pilot first | 10 | 10 | 20 | 50% |
Share among successes = strategy successes ÷ all successes. Strategy success rate = strategy successes ÷ all projects using that strategy. A zero denominator is undefined.
Assumptions, sources and evidence status
Original constructed fixture, constructed-project-selection-v1. Outcomes are supplied, not observed. Known unsuccessful projects are not the same as projects with unknown outcomes. Four nonnegative whole counts, total at most 200.